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MLP January 2013 Update

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Davide Accomazzo
16 January 2013

      - Present domestic oil production around 6 million barrels a day projected to go over 9 million by 2020

- Present domestic natural gas production 65 billion cubic feet per day projected to go over 75 by 2020

- Natural Gas midstream capex investments in the US estimated at $205 billion over next 25 years

- $46 additional billions estimated for NGL and oil pipes investments

-   Some projected crude oil production increases form 2011 to 2016-2018:

  1. Eagle Ford: 600%
  2. Bakken: 150%
  3. Rockies: 75%

 

-   Expected MLP IPOs in 2013: 14

 

-   Current Yields:

  1. Cushing 30 MLP Index: 6.7%
  2. Alerian Index: 5.9%

 

-  MLP Spreads:

  1. Versus REITS: approx 300 bps (one standard deviation above average - positive)
  2. Versus BBB: approx 280 bps (just above one standard deviation over average - positive)
  3. Versus 10 Year US Treasuries: approx. 400 bps (above historical average - positive)

 

-  Current Price to Distributable Cash Flow: 9.59 (above historical average of 8.5x – negative)

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