“What matters most is how you walk through fire.” Charles Bukowski
The second quarter of the year was essentially a smooth continuation of Q1: positive performance for equities in a low volatility environment against a backdrop of high interest rates but slightly cooling inflationary pressures.
All in all, it was more of that goldilocks scenario that equity traders have relished since the 2022 bottom. However, a deeper look at how this performance has developed is quite revealing. The US equity market is up over 16% YTD as per the S&P 500 index and just above 13% as per the broader Morningstar US Market index. However, an attribution analysis shows that the broader index would actually be in negative territory if deprived of the performance of the following five stocks: Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Google and Broadcom.
In other words, the AI trend was pivotal in propelling equity indexes to all-time highs. This concentration has ramifications also in terms of valuations. When we look at the Morningstar price/fair value ratio, we note a 3% overvaluation. Historically, the market has traded at or above this premium only 10% of the time. Furthermore, if we breakdown valuations by style, we notice that growth stocks are trading at a 7% premium while value stocks are trading at a 9% discount (source: Morningstar – David Sekera). We have been partial to value stocks for a while and clearly, we have been too early, but the right moment might have finally come. When it comes to value investing, it is also important to remember that patience is of the essence as turnarounds are usually slow to occur. Looking at the future, it is difficult to envision more of the same. As we start getting more data points indicating a slowdown in the economy, it seems reasonable to expect the more expensive sectors to be at higher risk for a repricing. Tech mega-cap stocks might have been a safe haven as interest rates rapidly rose but the intersection of changing economic data and unattractive valuations make them a risky bet going forward.
When we focus on specific sectors, we note that energy continues to provide good performance, attractive valuations and inflation hedging. Another interesting sector is real estate. Much of this area remains impaired due to high rates, refinancing pressure and structural changes still lingering after COVID. However, real estate with defensive characteristics such as health care, senior housing and life science provides good income and selected opportunities. Long term, we also still like data centers but the short term horizon might be volatile. And finally, we note that utilities could once again deserve a place in well diversified portfolios. As the pressure of rising rates disappears, valuations have stabilized while the fundamental outlook has significantly improved thanks to the increasing demand for electricity due to the AI trend and the general electrification of our economy. As always, we would like to thank you for the renewed confidence in our work,
Youri Bujko
Davide Accomazzo